The unpredictability of history

Antwerp had a population of about 100,000 in 1550. Fifty years later this number halved. By the turn of the seventeenth century Antwerp's population was reduced to about 50,000 and it took generations to recover. First Catholics killed Calvinists, then Calvinists hit back, killed Catholics and ruined the beautiful churches and destroyed the works of art. The power of the Catholics and Spanish rule was restored, there was an uneasy truce, but people stopped killing each other. This may be a very simplified account of history, but it helps us understand what is going on in the Middle East now, and gives us some hope. In a sense history doesn't repeat itself, but there are some obvious parallels between the current war between Shia and Sunni Muslims and the wars of religion in seventeenth and seventeenth century Europe. Europe was in turmoil after Calvin and Luther questioned and undermined the established order and the hegemony of the Catholic Church. The Middle East was in turmoil after the disintegration of colonial empires. The former colonial subject people sought answers at first in socialism and sided with the Bolshevik empire, then when Bolshevism failed looked for the solution of their problems in fundamental Islam. Either way, they thought that the Jews were at the heart of their problems. Ultimately conflict riven Europe settled down to a period of comparative peace and spectacular social, cultural and economic progress. It can only be hoped that the fires that fuel the current conflict in the Middle East will burn out and self interest, common sense, and a tolerant understanding of others will prevail.